LONDON 2012: As New Year starts thoughts turn to who can deliver British Olympic gold
-
Sportsbeat's 12 gold medal bankers for London 2012
Catergories:
As New Year starts, Managing Editor James Toney tips those who can deliver British gold at the London 2012 Olympics.
GREAT Britain's athletes returned with plenty to declare from the Beijing Olympics, including 19 golds in a 47 medal haul - their best performance since the 1908 London Games.
GOLDEN GENERATION: Chris Hoy and Rebecca Adlington won five of Britain's 19 Beijing golds between them. Who will be the stars on the podium top at London 2012 (Getty Images)
Home advantage is expected to improve this number, although there are plenty of examples of the pressure of a home Games becoming too much for medal ambitions - Liu Xiang in Beijing or Melissa Hollingsworth in Vancouver just two that spring to mind.
Sports statistics specialists Umbra - after reviewing data from all 2011's World Championships and other relevant world events and rankings in every Olympic discipline - show Team GB placing sixth on a relative medals table, with 59 medals in 13 sports.
Australia - chief rivals for Team GB's target of another fourth place position on the medal table - won less medals, 36, but claimed 16 golds.
British officials still use the 'quality over quantity' approach when it comes to calculating medal table success - ten golds and no silvers or bronzes will always trump nine golds, nine silvers and nine bronzes.
In North America, they prefer to calculate medal tables based on volume - which is why the USA, with 110 medals and 36 golds in Beijing, finished 'ahead' of China, with 100 medals but 51 gold, on the medal table produced by US based news service the Associated Press.
Every Olympics throws up surprise champions but who are Great Britain's gold medal bankers for 2012? Here's some suggestions, a £10 perm bet would be worth having on this demon dozen.
Ben Ainslie, Sailing, Finn
FUMING: Great Britain's three-time Olympic champion Ben Ainslie was disqualfied from two key races at the ISAF World Championships after an angry confrontation with a TV boat (onEdition)
Ben Ainslie will be seeking his fourth Olympic gold - and fifth career medal - at London 2012, which probably makes him Britain's most decorated sailor since Horatio Nelson.
After Beijing he focussed on big boat America's Cup sailing but has dominated since his return to Olympic classes, winning three ISAF World Cup regattas in 2011 and securing the official Olympic test event in Weymouth with ease.
He was also on course for another world title in Melbourne before his well publicised run-in with a media boat, which perhaps only underlines his winning determination.
Iain Percy and Andrew Simpson, Sailing, Star
ONES TO BEAT: Iain Percy and Andrew Simpson are the reigning Olympic champions in sailing's Star class (onEdition)
Iain Percy and Andrew 'Bart' Simpson probably would have defended their world title in Melbourne in December had it not been for the former's back injury forcing their withdrawal.
Percy is looking for his third Olympic gold, having won the Finn class in Sydney and triumphed with Simpson in Beijing.
If they gave podium positions for being 'bloody nice blokes', these two, off the water at least, would be right up there.
Alistair Brownlee, Triathlon
TOP OF THE WORLD: Alistair Brownlee was crowned world champion for the second time in his career in 2011
Alistair Brownlee, who will be supported by younger brother and training partner Jonathan, has dominated his sport for the last three years, winning the world title in 2009 and 2011.
2010 was marred by a stress fracture of the femur, which prevented him retaining his world title, but he did claim the European crown and still picked up a succession of high-profile race wins.
He started 2011 with a heavy fall in Sydney but in the course of three weeks in June he won World Championship Series races in Madrid and Kitzbuhel and defended his European gold, despite a puncture on the bike leg which left him 30 seconds behind the leaders.
He also won the Olympic test event in Hyde Park and emerged victorious in Beijing, the season's grand final.
Rebecca Adlington, Swimming, 800m freestyle
FLYING THE FLAG: Rebecca Adlington claimed 800m freestyle gold at the World Championships in Shanghai (onEdition)
Talk to Rebecca Adlington about London 2012 and she will usually start to fret about whether she will even qualify.
And while her hopes of defending the 400m freestyle title she won in Beijing don't appear so good - Italy's Federica Pellegrini has started to dominate that discipline with two straight world titles and a world record - over double the distance Adlington is difficult to beat when at her best.
But did suffer a hangover from her double gold in Beijing at the following year's World Championships, finishing a tearful fourth in her signature event in Rome.
Another disappointment followed at the 2010 European Championships when she come home a sorry seventh but she led from start to finish to claim gold at the Commonwealth Games a few months later in Delhi.
In 2011 Adlington was back near her top level, claiming 400m silver at the World Championships in Shanghai behind Pellegrini and kicking away from Denmark's Lotte Friis to win her first world title over 800m - although the winning margin was not as comprehensive as her world record romp in Beijing.
Keri Anne Payne, Swimming, 10km open water
WINNER: Olympic silver medallist Keri-Anne Payne retained her World Championships open water swimming title with a victory in Shanghai (Getty Images)
Keri Anne Payne was the first British athlete to secure her place on Team GB when she retained her world open water title in Shanghai.
The sweltering conditions, with three competitors rescued from the water after suffering exhaustion, will certainly be contrasted with Hyde Park's Serpentine in August, although it's advisable to avoid the swans.
But Payne led from start to finish, avoiding the flailing elbows, which make black eyes and broken noses common, to beat Italy's Martina Grimaldi by a second - although her authority over the two-hour long race makes that winning margin deceiving.
Sarah Stevenson, Taekwondo, Middleweight
IMPRESSIVE: Sarah Stevenson upgraded her Olympic bronze to win the world taekwondo title in Korea for the second time (Getty Images)
Sarah Stevenson will start hot favourite to right the wrongs of Beijing with a gold medal in front her home crowd in London.
Stevenson, who competes in taekwondo's middleweight category, won bronze in 2008 but only after she had been reinstated to the competition after judges initially incorrectly ruled she had been beaten by China's Chen Zhong in the last eight.
But bronze was bittersweet for the 28-year old from Doncaster, who felt that after beating the gold medal favourite she was on course for the top of the podium.
This year she underlined her class by winning the world title for the second time, ten years after her first success.
But it was a tumultuous 12 months as both her parents, Diane and Roy, succumbed to the cancer they had been bravely fighting.
She was also named Sunday Times sportswoman of the year and awarded an MBE in the New Year's Honours list.
Katherine Grainger and Anna Wakins, Double sculls, Rowing
DOMINANT: Anna Watkins and Katherine Grainger won the double scull world title in Slovenia - retaining the crown they won last year in New Zealand (Reuters)
In Great Britain's all-conquering rowing team there would be few more popular Olympic champions than three-time silver medallist Katherine Grainger.
Along with Anna Watkins she has dominated rowing's double sculls discipline in the last two years, winning the world title in 2010 and 2011.
But Grainger was part of a quadruple sculls crew that showed similar form before Beijing and was again forced to settle for silver.
However, no-one has touched Grainger and Watkins in 2011 and their win over Australia's Kerry Hore and Kim Crow at the worlds in Slovenia was commanding, if not as comprehensive as one year earlier in New Zealand.
Men's four, Rowing
HAPPY CHAPS: Peter Reed and Andy Triggs-Hodge, pictured celebrating Olympic gold in Beijing, have their work cut out return to the top of the podium at London 2012 - unless they rejoin the world champion men's four (Getty Images)
Unbeaten at the Olympics since Sydney 2000, Great Britain men's coach Jurgen Grobler will be determined that the men's four, the long-time flagship crew of his team, will continue their winning run in London.
Matthew Langridge, Richard Egington, Tom James and Alex Gregory sat in the seats to deliver the 2011 world title in Bled but Grobler has previously been ruthless in his pursuit of the winning formula in Olympic year.
Andy Hodge and Pete Reed appeared determined to finally better New Zealand's Eric Murray and Hamish Bond - they haven't yet - in the men's pair after a succession of silvers but the pressure on Grobler to put his strongest rowers in one crew will be intense.
Hodge, Reed and James - along with Steve Williams - followed in the wake of legendary names like Steve Redgrave, Matthew Pinsent and James Cracknell to win the men's four gold in Beijing.
It would be harsh on the others but with Murray and Bond seemingly unbeatable in the pair, many are pushing for an Olympic super crew to be formed.
Women's team pursuit, Cycling
UPGRADE: After individual silver behind team-mate Rebecca Romero in Beijing, Wendy Houvenaghel, left, is a key of Team GB's hot gold medal hopes in the team pursuit at London 2012 (Reuters)
Considering Team GB won a thumping eight cycling gold medals in Beijing - there were days at a Laoshan velodrome when it appeared God Save the Queen was stuck on repeat - it might seem strange that only one cycling discipline is considered among our medal bankers.
Cycling's world governing body have not helped Team GB's cause by dropping from their schedule two of the events in which British cyclists won gold, replacing the historic individual pursuit with the unloved omnium, a confusing six-event challenge.
Mark Cavendish will be a serious contender for road race gold but the route is much more demanding than the one on which he triumphed at the Olympic test event or in Copenhagen, where he won the world title.
He will also be supported by four men in London as opposed to the seven-strong team Great Britain took to Denmark and there is also question marks over the involvement of David Millar, a key factor in Cavendish's rainbow jersey success.
Since Beijing, British Cycling has also seen the rest of the world step up but in the women's team pursuit, which makes its debut in London, they have been dominant.
Combinations of cyclists have won rainbow jerseys at three of the last four World Championships with Laura Trott, Wendy Houvenaghel and Dani King successful earlier this year in Apeldoorn.
Joanna Rowsell, a world champion in 2008 and 2009, is also challenging for selection in the three-strong team to underline an impressive strength in depth.
Jess Ennis, Athletics, Heptathlon
UPBEAT: Despite surrendering her world title in 2011, Jess Ennis remains one of the faces of the London 2012 Olympics (Getty Images)
Jess Ennis knows she will need to break Denise Lewis's long-standing British record to win Olympic gold - and having been so close before there is no better place to do it than at London 2012.
In some ways finishing second behind Tatyana Chernova at the World Championships in Daegu has only stiffened her resolve to complete her set of major championship gold medals at the Olympics.
Ennis has dominated heptathlon for the past three years and is also motivated by the injury that denied her a Games debut in Beijing.
Chernova though is the real deal too and Ennis can't afford not to deliver in her best events, such as the 100m hurdles, or below-par performances in the javelin and long jump, as happened in Korea.
However, she's previously proved that she doesn't buckle under pressure - and success on August 4th could be London 2012's 'Cathy Freeman moment'.
Mo Farah, Athletics, 5000m
Mo Farah has certainly come a long way since the Beijing Olympics, when he trudged away from the Bird's Nest disconsolate after failing to make the final of the 5,000m.
He will arrive in London as the world's most feared distance runner, following his 10,000m silver and 5,000m gold at the World Championships in Daegu and golden double at the previous year's European Championships in Barcelona.
His relocation to the USA, where he now works with renowned coach Alberto Salazar, has been credited with his surge in form and 2011 has seen British and European records shattered and an encouraging half marathon debut in New York, which surely points to his long-term ambitions for Rio 2016.
Dave Moorcroft, the former 5000 metres world record holder, has hailed Farah as 'the greatest male distance runner that Britain has ever seen'.
It's a sentiment he might need to reword if Farah becomes the first male athlete to ever win the long-distance double at the Games - something legends such as Haile Gebrselassie never achieved.
Dai Greene, Athletics, 400m hurdles
IMPRESSIVE: Dai Greene's victories at the World and European Championships and Commonwealth Games make him one of the best Team GB track and field medal prospects. But few recognise him - even in his native Wales (Reuters)
If they were handing out medals for sporting profile, Dai Greene would not be featuring on or even near the podium at London 2012.
Bizarrely, this likeable 400m hurdler gets little recognition for his achievements from a mass audience - even in his native Wales.
Despite now holding the world, European and Commonwealth title he didn't even make the top three at the 2011 Welsh Sports Personality Awards, motorcyclist Chaz Davies, triathlete Helen Jenkins and Paralympic athlete Nathan Stephens gaining the most public votes.
Greene could change all that in 2012 and will have nothing to fear having beaten all his rivals in Diamond League competitions and when it matters at major championships.
He's also been backed by double Olympic 400m hurdles champion Ed Moses - who won the last of his title at his hometown Games in Los Angeles.
© Sportsbeat 2011
